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Magic Origins, Modern Master 2015 and the current Standard sets

The first 72  Magic Origins cards, mostly at limited level, have been reveled. It makes me feel Magic Origins is weaker than Magic 2015. Getting weaker sets doesn't mean lower profit chance; Reversely, prices can be very high for a few good cards in such sets.

Modern Master 2015 is so good as Vintage Masters but they have extended the drafting period. That disturbed my plan. I sold all Tarmogoyf at around 1 tix loss on each. If it unfortunately follows the price movement of Vintage Masters, no one should touch it at all. 

Let me tell you the story of Vintage Masters: 
Last year, Vintage Masters first appeared in MTGO. It was the first time for online players to use Power 9 (Moxes, Black Lotus, Time Walk etc) in games. People had very high expectation on the set and they were not disappointed by the cards. At the early stage of the set's release, a player can buy packs from MTGO store and get a decent profit by selling the cards opened. A friend proved it by cracking 167 packs. I found a problem in the cards he's shown me: too many foils. I remembered he opened 1 foil Force of Wills, many foil dual lands and other once expensive rares in foil. I checked one foil of a random rarity is inserted in every Vintage Masters pack. Now they are doing the same treatment to Modern Masters 2015. Last year, tons of foils flooded Vintage market making foils cheaper than regulars and regulars lower than the price they used to be before the release. Will Modern Master fall like it? That's the first concern for Modern Masters 2015.

One of the culprits for the long term depreciation of Vintage Master cards is extended draft queues. VM was first considered as a limited release set, like Master Edition but they extended it's draft period from 1 month to nearly 4 months. They extended that of MM2015 for 2 weeks. I am scared of further extensions. Also, when the draft period ends( if they don't extened it again), Modern MOCS event ends as well. The demand will shrink. 

I don't recommend buying MM2015 for short term but I am not sure it's a valuable investment for long term. Let's save the tix for Magic Origins and other Standard sets.

I expect some standard cards will rise during the preview week of Magic Origins.

1. Deathmist Raptor

Perilous Vault rotates with M15. If there is no good exiling removals in Magic Origins, Deathmist will be more popular. 


2. Dragonlord Ojutai and Narset Transcendent

Enemy color pain lands rotates with M15. Mana source may shift back to Friendly color decks and UW is probably the best control deck in the next standard. Update: Painlands are still in Magic Origins and I found many anti control cards in the new set, I think they will drop.

3. Dig Through Time, Collected Company, Den Protector, Thunderbreak Regent

All these rares have a chance to rise. Fast red creatures and Stoke the flame rotates with M15 and I guess they will not print many good cards for fast red decks. Slower decks may become more popular. However, you should not put all your tix on rares because they might be given out as gifts in player's reward promotions.
Update: As the same reason in 2. the trend of Dig Through Time is unsure. Collected Company may not be a Standard card.
I don't think the new Dragon in Magic Origins is enable to challenge Thunderbreak Regent. 
As long as Abazan keeps its position, Den Protector will be fine.

4. Monastery Mentor and Soulfire Grand Master

Jeskai token and burn decks could be a good choice a fast deck after rotation. I have no any evidence on this one, though. Update: Both are uncertain for me. I don't want to comment so early.

5. Warden of the First Tree

I saw a 2/1 green mana creature that taps for 1 mana but no Mystic Elf in the spoiler. If Mystic Elf rotates with M15, Does it mean Warden will be the best 1 drop for green decks ?
Update: I think it's a reasonable cards to buy.

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