1. Will MTGO Vintage be more popular than paper Vintage?
Yes, I think so cause it's much much cheaper to play Vintage on MTGO. Take an example: On paper Volcanic Island is $200 or more but it's $20 on MTGO. We can apply the one tenth price discount not only to dual lands but most Vintage staples from old sets/rare sets. I tend to think the online prices of Power 9 will be discounted to one tenth or even less of their paper version too. As Black Lotus and Moxes in power 9 can be found in most Vintage decks, if they are easy to open, we expect the format will draw new players or at least Legacy players to try it. Besides, Vintage is a competitive format that Wizards hold prized events. That's the main fascination for professional players. Another possible outcome is that paper Vintage players may buy online decks and play online as it's easy to find other Vintage players on MTGO than in card stores.
2. What cards should I collect if it is true that online Vintage format is more popular than paper Vintage?
Let's start from paper card values. They are expensive because they were printed in small volume and Wizards of the Coast is not willing to reprint them. Therefore, we say they have collection value - even they are not played in decks, they worth money. The price movements of these cards are not clear indexes for us. We should look at the cards with relatively high print run and only used in Vintage format. I 'll pick Oath of Druids as an example. It's from Exodus, a small set sold in the late 90s, it was banned from Legacy, it can be used only in Vintage. Decks using Oath make up 10% of Vintage tier 1 decks. However, the price of paper Oath of Druids is just around USD 4 - 5. Below, I made a comparison of Oath with Natural Order, which is also form a small set (Visions).
Oath of Druids Natural Order
Exodus Visions, Reprinted in Portal
Used in Vintage Oath decks Used in Legacy Elf decks
make up 10% of all decks make up 5% of all decks
Price: USD 4 -5 Price: ~USD 30
The great price difference between the two cards may indicate that in real life, the number of Vintage players is much lower than that of Legacy players. Assuming that online Vintage will be more popular than its real life version, our targets are cards like Oath of Druids.
Cards that may rise significantly are:
Bazaar of Baghdad (Dredge)
Black Vise (discard decks)
Earthcraft (combo)
Gush (UR pyromancer?)
Mana Drain (UW miracles?)
Mental Misstep (many blue decks)
Mishra's Workshop (Stax)
Oath of Druids (Oath combo)
Skullclamp (goblins?)
Survival of the Fittest ( in casual decks?)
Null Rod ( a card mainly used in Vintage decks)
Also, I think when we have extra tix available, we should collect these cards:
Balance
Channel
Demonic Consultation
Fastbond
Imperial Seal
Library of Alexandria
Mana Crypt
Mana Vault
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Sol Ring
Strip Mine
Time Vault
Tolarian Academy
Vampiric Tutor
Yawgmoth's Bargain
Yawgmoth's Will
The following cards are safe investments becasue they are used both in Legacy and Vintage. They will restore their value sooner than cards purely used in Vintage.
Sphere of Resistance
Smokestack
Yes, I think so cause it's much much cheaper to play Vintage on MTGO. Take an example: On paper Volcanic Island is $200 or more but it's $20 on MTGO. We can apply the one tenth price discount not only to dual lands but most Vintage staples from old sets/rare sets. I tend to think the online prices of Power 9 will be discounted to one tenth or even less of their paper version too. As Black Lotus and Moxes in power 9 can be found in most Vintage decks, if they are easy to open, we expect the format will draw new players or at least Legacy players to try it. Besides, Vintage is a competitive format that Wizards hold prized events. That's the main fascination for professional players. Another possible outcome is that paper Vintage players may buy online decks and play online as it's easy to find other Vintage players on MTGO than in card stores.
2. What cards should I collect if it is true that online Vintage format is more popular than paper Vintage?
Let's start from paper card values. They are expensive because they were printed in small volume and Wizards of the Coast is not willing to reprint them. Therefore, we say they have collection value - even they are not played in decks, they worth money. The price movements of these cards are not clear indexes for us. We should look at the cards with relatively high print run and only used in Vintage format. I 'll pick Oath of Druids as an example. It's from Exodus, a small set sold in the late 90s, it was banned from Legacy, it can be used only in Vintage. Decks using Oath make up 10% of Vintage tier 1 decks. However, the price of paper Oath of Druids is just around USD 4 - 5. Below, I made a comparison of Oath with Natural Order, which is also form a small set (Visions).
Oath of Druids Natural Order
Exodus Visions, Reprinted in Portal
Used in Vintage Oath decks Used in Legacy Elf decks
make up 10% of all decks make up 5% of all decks
Price: USD 4 -5 Price: ~USD 30
The great price difference between the two cards may indicate that in real life, the number of Vintage players is much lower than that of Legacy players. Assuming that online Vintage will be more popular than its real life version, our targets are cards like Oath of Druids.
Cards that may rise significantly are:
Bazaar of Baghdad (Dredge)
Black Vise (discard decks)
Earthcraft (combo)
Gush (UR pyromancer?)
Mana Drain (UW miracles?)
Mental Misstep (many blue decks)
Mishra's Workshop (Stax)
Oath of Druids (Oath combo)
Skullclamp (goblins?)
Survival of the Fittest ( in casual decks?)
Null Rod ( a card mainly used in Vintage decks)
Also, I think when we have extra tix available, we should collect these cards:
Balance
Channel
Demonic Consultation
Fastbond
Imperial Seal
Library of Alexandria
Mana Crypt
Mana Vault
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Sol Ring
Strip Mine
Time Vault
Tolarian Academy
Vampiric Tutor
Yawgmoth's Bargain
Yawgmoth's Will
The following cards are safe investments becasue they are used both in Legacy and Vintage. They will restore their value sooner than cards purely used in Vintage.
Sphere of Resistance
Smokestack
Force of Will
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Burning Wish
Ichorid
Ancient Tomb
All dual lands
If you have questions on Vintage Masters, let me know and I will try to answer it here.
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