Sad! I didn't hoard Power 9 two days ago. From 150, Black Lotus upsurged back to 270, other P9 members have risen by 20% - 30%.
How do we explain this tragedy?
1. Bots are buying - they usually start making waves two weeks after release events, but this time, 2 days. Dominating bots set the prices in MTGO: when they all buy at 130, the price is 130, when they rise to 270, players must accept 270. They are lords in MTGO.
2. Players are buying - I noticed a significant difference in number of drafters between the weekends and the week days. Initially, it's a simple supply-demand difference that drove the prices up. But the price movement was amplified by the over reactions of bots.
Besides, bots are still not buying foils. Here are the reasons for their decision. First, their owners believe foils in Vintage Master are easier to open than in other sets(one foil per pack for Vintage Masters; one foil per 8 packs for other sets). Second, they consider foils as hard-to-sell stocks. The first reasons seems legitimate. I have seen all the cards opened by a streamer who cracked 116 packs before release events, I feel foils in VM are easier to find than in other sets. And the second reason made me think they are now overbuying the regulars and selling them to players immediately, in a way much like what we did to P9s. When the customers wanes dramatically some day, they will suddenly pull down the prices of regular cards. And when it happens, the loss will still be too small comparing with the profit they will have made from now on. For foils, Bots can't repeat the hoarding, selling, profit processes due to their poor liquidity. So, definitely, the prices buyers pay today for the foils are not the prices bots expect in the next one or two months. Not only should we be caution when buying regular cards, we must also pay as low as possible for the foils. In long term, foil dual lands and Force of Will are the cards I want to stock up. For quick profits and safety, I regularly flip the foils and P9s on hand.
How do we explain this tragedy?
1. Bots are buying - they usually start making waves two weeks after release events, but this time, 2 days. Dominating bots set the prices in MTGO: when they all buy at 130, the price is 130, when they rise to 270, players must accept 270. They are lords in MTGO.
2. Players are buying - I noticed a significant difference in number of drafters between the weekends and the week days. Initially, it's a simple supply-demand difference that drove the prices up. But the price movement was amplified by the over reactions of bots.
Besides, bots are still not buying foils. Here are the reasons for their decision. First, their owners believe foils in Vintage Master are easier to open than in other sets(one foil per pack for Vintage Masters; one foil per 8 packs for other sets). Second, they consider foils as hard-to-sell stocks. The first reasons seems legitimate. I have seen all the cards opened by a streamer who cracked 116 packs before release events, I feel foils in VM are easier to find than in other sets. And the second reason made me think they are now overbuying the regulars and selling them to players immediately, in a way much like what we did to P9s. When the customers wanes dramatically some day, they will suddenly pull down the prices of regular cards. And when it happens, the loss will still be too small comparing with the profit they will have made from now on. For foils, Bots can't repeat the hoarding, selling, profit processes due to their poor liquidity. So, definitely, the prices buyers pay today for the foils are not the prices bots expect in the next one or two months. Not only should we be caution when buying regular cards, we must also pay as low as possible for the foils. In long term, foil dual lands and Force of Will are the cards I want to stock up. For quick profits and safety, I regularly flip the foils and P9s on hand.
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