Hearing that a collector sold his 20K collections and he would take a several month break, I was not so panic as the first time I checked out Vintage Masters spoiler. It's true he had reasons to stop playing MTGO and the reasons produced a conclusion of 15% fall in tix value, 70% loss in dual lands, Force of Will, Mana Drain......
And yes, it's also true that reprinting of old cards as special sets can drag the prices down for 70%(Cryptic Command in Modern Masters, for example) and for years. Besides, there are rumors that new MTGO program will drive players out of this game. Put aside weather they will happen or not, I see a chance.
First, we have to assume the game, MTG itself doesn't fall in popularity. Then, the demand from front stores and online card shops doesn't disappear so redeemers won't stop buying full sets from MTGO. When the players sell their collections and leave the game, two things happen: redeemers will take the cards and the supply of standard cards drops after they stop playing MTGO. That means the cost of completing a standard set will be lower for a period of time then it will spike up. Another possible factor for rising is that if ticket price really depreciate to USD 0.85, redeemers will be willing to pay more tix on sets. I believe the redeemable sets will be unaffected by changes of MTGO population.
Now, we think about Vintage Masters, a set full of reprints. According Wizards, it 's available for 3 months til the release of next standard set. In this 3 months, it seems we can search for the bottom prices of staple cards following the price movement of Modern Masters. But be caution! We don't know yet if Vintage will be so popular as Modern. What is the safest way to collect Vintage Masters? I recommend my readers to do research on the cards highly used in both Legacy and Vintage format. Instead of cards restricted in Vintage banned in Legacy (like Vampiric Tutor, Tolarian Academy, Yawgmoth's Will). We can buy the following cards:
Force of Will
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Burning Wish
Ichorid
Ancient Tomb
All dual lands
In smaller scale, we can also collect these cards:
Oath of Druids
Survival of the Fittest
Lion's Eye Diamond
Null Rod
Smokestack
Sphere of Resistance
Bazaar of Baghdad
My personal opinions on new MTGO program is not as pessimistic as my friend who sold his 20K collection. I believe, after all, it's the card game not the online game interface that draw players into MTGO. Even if they make the game unfriendly, drafters, event players, casual players will just tolerate. For me, I 've long given up the dream of a card game in which 3D djinns flutter atop a card, fiery griffins flipping their wings fight goblins, I don't see it happening til years after most card games use augmented reality technology.
As the first article in this new blog after my break, I wish my readers stay firm to MTGO, give faith on WOTC a chance to reward!
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